Raiders film study: Whats wrong with Josh McDaniels offense?

May 22, 2024

Last January, when he was asked why he hired Josh McDaniels as coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, owner Mark Davis pointed out the success McDaniels had in 13 years as the New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator. They consistently had one of the best offenses in the league and won a lot of games. Davis acknowledged that most of that came with Tom Brady at quarterback but was quick to highlight that McDaniels had helped do the same with Matt Cassel and Mac Jones throwing the passes. Davis believed McDaniels was capable of bringing that scoring and winning to the Raiders.

“I’ve just always seen the Patriots as a team that not only adapts from week to week or half to half, but maybe even series to series,” Davis said. “I believe in Josh’s ability to assess a situation and make the changes in real time, and that’s always been something that’s impressed me.”

Through 24 games, Davis’ expectations haven’t come to fruition. The Raiders finished with a 6-11 record last year and are off to a 3-4 start this year. And though the offense averaged a respectable 23.2 points per game last season (12th in the league), they’ve cratered to just 16 points per game (30th) this season.

There’s no excuse for that dramatic drop-off. After deciding last year’s offense wasn’t good enough, the Raiders released quarterback Derek Carr and traded tight end Darren Waller while adding quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, receivers Jakobi Meyers, DeAndre Carter and Tre Tucker and tight end Michael Mayer this past offseason. General manager Dave Ziegler and McDaniels made those moves out of a belief the offense would be significantly better — but it’s been substantially worse.

“Every game feels hard right now whether we win or lose,” McDaniels said Monday. “We’re going to need to keep pushing offensively to try to find that place where we feel like we can get to.”

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With 10 games left this season, The Athletic staff writer Ted Nguyen and Raiders beat writer Tashan Reed examine the primary issues with the Raiders offense. It’s on McDaniels to figure them out.

Lack of push in the run game

Running back Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing last year and was a first-team All-Pro, but he’s been a shell of himself on the ground this season. Jacobs has rushed for just 347 yards (20th in the league) and two touchdowns (tied for 20th) while averaging 2.9 yards per carry (third worst in the league).

It’s not that Jacobs has gotten worse; he just hasn’t had anywhere to run. According to Next Gen Stats, Jacobs is averaging 0.7 yards before contact per carry, which is the ninth-worst mark in the league among players with at least 50 carries. He has been tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage on 23.7 percent of his runs, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Defenses have frequently loaded the box to slow down Jacobs. The Raiders have faced eight or more defenders in the box on 24.1 percent of their carries (eighth most).

Still, the Raiders have had plenty of rushing opportunities where they have just as many blockers as defenders in the box. According to NGS, 74.1 percent of the Raiders’ carries have come when there are as many or more blockers than defenders in the box (ninth). That’s a strong sign the run blocking has just been flat-out bad.

The lack of push down the middle has been glaring, and that’s a problem that’s unlikely to be fixed this season barring an unexpected personnel change.

What they can control is how in sync they are with their blocking assignments and timing. The Raiders found some success against the Patriots by running an outside zone scheme. Outside zone doesn’t require a lot of physicality inside, and a smart offensive line with athleticism and good footwork can be enough to make the scheme work. It does, though, require strong blocking on the edge from tight ends. Mayer’s blocking ability is improving, but it’s still a work in progress.

Week 7, 13:57 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10

This play exemplifies how out of sync the Raiders run game is right now. They were in 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end, two receivers). They had a strongside outside zone run called toward Mayer’s side. Chicago Bears linebacker Jack Sanborn bumped outside. Before Sanborn moved, Mayer was supposed to double the end to the strongside linebacker. After Sanborn moved, he should have adjusted his blocking assignment and just gone straight to Sanborn. Instead, he incorrectly doubled the end toward inside linebacker Terrell Edmunds, who was already fullback Jakob Johnson’s assignment.

Mayer and Johnson went to block Edmunds, leaving Sanborn free to make the play. The rest of the offensive line opened up a crease inside, but Jacobs was hit in the backfield.

Regression from the highs of last season was expected, but the drop-off in rushing efficiency is one of the most surprising developments of the Raiders’ season.

Defenders sitting on routes

Defenses don’t respect Las Vegas’ ability to throw the ball deep. The Raiders are averaging just 6.7 air yards per attempt (22nd in the league), and only 7.1 percent of their passes have traveled 20 or more air yards (31st) — so they haven’t given them much of a reason to. The result has been opposing defenders sitting on routes and clogging up passing lanes.

According to NGS, 15.8 percent of the Raiders’ throws have gone into tight windows (fifth-highest rate in the league). In comparison, just 42.7 percent of their throws have gone to open targets (21st), and only 19.9 percent of their throws have gone to wide-open targets (25th).

The compressed nature of the offense directly contributes to turnovers. The Raiders have thrown 12 interceptions (most in the league) and have an interception rate of 5.0 percent (highest in the league). Poor decision-making from the quarterbacks has been a factor, of course, but so is the flawed design of the passing offense.

Week 5, 13:13 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-13

On this play against the Green Bay Packers, the Raiders had a boot concept called with Davante Adams running a corner route to create space underneath for Jakobi Meyers on a crosser.

Cornerback Rasul Douglas lined up over Adams but didn’t get a lot of depth on his drop and even fell off of Adams to play Meyers. Strong safety Rudy Ford matched Meyers, played underneath him, and then undercut the pass for an interception.

Even if Ford wasn’t there, Douglas would have been in position to make a play. Douglas knows how dangerous Adams is, but here, he seemed to ignore him because he didn’t respect Garoppolo’s ability to get the ball behind him.

Garoppolo has never excelled as a deep-ball thrower, but the passing offense is going to be limited unless the Raiders start taking more shots downfield to stretch the field vertically. Garoppolo doesn’t have to play outside of his ability, but he can connect on “go” balls in rhythm. He doesn’t have the arm strength to hit those types of passes late, but, similar to Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, he can hit them off one or two hitches.

Consistency of Davante Adams’ targets

At first glance, it might sound strange to say getting Adams the ball has been a problem. The veteran receiver is averaging 10.1 targets per game (eighth in the league) and has 71 total targets (sixth).

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Rather than overall volume, though, the issue has been consistency. Adams has played 28 quarters this season. In 16 of them, he has received two or fewer targets. Especially given how much the offense has been struggling, that doesn’t make sense.

The Raiders have been good about getting Adams the ball early and late in games. He’s averaging 3.0 targets in first quarters (tied for second) and 3.2 targets in fourth quarters (tied for first). In the middle quarters, though, he has been lost in the mix. Adams is averaging just 3.8 targets combined in third and fourth quarters this season (tied for 27th). The Raiders have to find a way to keep their best receiver more consistently involved in the game plan.

The problem of getting Adams the ball goes back to the Raiders’ inability to stretch the field.

Week 6, 4:06 remaining in the first quarter, second-and-8

Here, the Patriots were in Cover 1 (man-to-man with a free safety). Adams was lined up to the top of the screen and ran a slant. Jabrill Peppers was the free safety.

After the snap, Peppers remained flat-footed and drove on Adams as soon as Garoppolo looked in his direction.

As soon as Adams caught the ball, Peppers drilled him and dislodged the ball, which popped up into the air and was picked off. It’s a lot easier to cover Adams when defenders can sit on his routes and double him without the threat of getting punished with an explosive pass elsewhere.

Missed opportunities

McDaniels’ game and team management deserve a lot of scrutiny, but he has designed and called plays that have gotten receivers open. The problem is his hand-picked quarterbacks haven’t been able to capitalize.

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Week 8, 4:46 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-7

On this play, the Raiders had a play-action concept with Mayer running down the seam with Meyers running a curl outside of him. The defense showed two safeties deep before the snap, which meant the middle of the field was open.

Edmunds bit on the play fake and Mayer got behind him. Both safeties were outside and flat-footed. If Raiders quarterback Brian Hoyer threw the ball with some anticipation at the top of his drop, he could have hit Mayer for a big play. Hoyer was looking right at Mayer but decided not to throw him the ball.

This play was an example of a deep throw that Hoyer or Garoppolo have the arm strength to complete. Either they’re not pulling the trigger, missing them with a throw or not seeing them in the first place. As long as defenses don’t respect the Raiders’ ability to stretch the field, everything is going to be a grind.

Despite the missed opportunities, the Raiders have been able to move the ball. They’ve engineered 24 red zone drives (tied for eighth) according to TruMedia, but they are one of the worst teams in the league at scoring touchdowns once they get there.

The Raiders have only scored a touchdown on 41.7 percent of their red zone trips (25th). They’ve turned the ball over four times in the red zone (tied for most) and have committed five penalties in the red zone (tied for third). Their inability to run the ball and their quarterbacks’ inability to create plays with their legs or consistently make throws into tight windows make their poor red zone efficiency easy to understand.

“We got to take advantage of the big-play opportunities that we get, and then the drives that we do sustain, we can’t mess up with penalties and turnovers in the red area,” offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi said Tuesday. “It’s kind of been our crux the entire season.”

(Photo of Josh McDaniels, Josh Jacobs and Jimmy Garoppolo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

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